You know, as someone who is a full time job seeker these days I really thought I would have more time to conduct as much day trading and research as my heart desired. Alas, life always gets in the way and I seem to have just as much time spent on my Scottrade portfolio while I was working full time as I do now.
So yeah, now I have a super long "shopping list" of single name stocks and mutual funds. I've done research on a handful of them but still have a long way to go. The most amusing part is that I definitely want to buy at least 4-5 securities but I am holding off until there is a dip in the market.
Am I insane for trying to time the market? Maybe, maybe not. You see, I don't believe in buying in, especially for a long term hold like a mutual fund, when the market is at 18-month highs. Yes, the data is getting better slowly but surely but I just don't think we have seen the worst just yet. I might miss out on a lot of upside, but I am not quite ready for dumping some cash in the market right now. I am beginning to think the dollar cost averaging is a much better method of purchasing securities vs once a year habits that I tend to have.
With all that said, where is my March dip that I have been waiting on? I could have sworn we were going to see the second dip in the "W" scenario I have been predicting for over a year now. I guess this means I need to readjust my very fixed income brain to figure out what the next 12-16 months will look like.
Anyone care to share thoughts?
Friday, March 19, 2010
Friday, February 12, 2010
So what's up with TM?
I received my first email inquiry yesterday and was unabashedly excited about it. Somehow, the thought of at least one person even reading this blog makes me happy.
Anyway, the question was about good ol' Toyota (NYSE: TM) and whether it is now a good time to buy it. The person who sent the question was a bit nervous about buying in too early before another dip in the stock's price. Every investor deals with this fear each time s/he places a trade order. However, as individual investors we must rely on our own research to make informed decisions so that we can sleep better at night.
So how DOES one determine whether it is a good time to buy TM? Well, one thing I learned quickly about the markets is that you shouldn't try to time actions perfectly. It will drive you bonkers. With that in mind, however, I read a bunch of recent research reports published since Toyota's President apologized for the massive recall on February 5th.
Here's my findings re TM's financial "health:"
- The official recall of 4 models will not heavily impact TM's earnings. There will be a massive amount of lawsuits to come, but not enough to cause major concern for the car company provided it works on regaining customer loyalty/trust immediately.
- TM has a small debt load and lots of cash, which is pretty darn helpful in this environment.
- 3rd quarter results showed 10% increase in revenues as well as some reduction in costs, another positive in my book.
- Fiscal year 2010 won't be as pretty as years past, but that is not unusual in this economy
- Expansion into emerging markets like Brazil and Russia should help ease the pain of a harsh decline in demand in the US
From a quick and dirty look at Toyota's financial status, the company sounds like it will be more than fine despite the recalls. Buying TM stock over the next few weeks is a good idea in my book. However, as an investor I would proceed with caution and try to wait and see if I could purchase Toyota around the mid $60s or low $70s range.
I am a big fan of Limit orders and would certainly put one on for TM at several price levels. By some conservative estimates, the 12 month stock price estimate is low $80s. Others have pointed out that it can reach its old $90s handle prior to the recall woes and even top out around the $110s. I now have TM on my own watchlist and hope to buy the stock on a down day(s).
Think long and hard whether you are willing to hold TM stock for the short or long term. Always do more research to help you make informed decisions since knowledge is power (so cliche, I know, but I couldn't help that one).
So, will you be watching TM more closely now?
Disclaimer: Please remember to speak to your own licensed financial advisor. I am just a person willing to share my thoughts about investing with internet strangers. Do your research, and then turn around and do some more. This blog is purely for discussion purposes :-)
Anyway, the question was about good ol' Toyota (NYSE: TM) and whether it is now a good time to buy it. The person who sent the question was a bit nervous about buying in too early before another dip in the stock's price. Every investor deals with this fear each time s/he places a trade order. However, as individual investors we must rely on our own research to make informed decisions so that we can sleep better at night.
So how DOES one determine whether it is a good time to buy TM? Well, one thing I learned quickly about the markets is that you shouldn't try to time actions perfectly. It will drive you bonkers. With that in mind, however, I read a bunch of recent research reports published since Toyota's President apologized for the massive recall on February 5th.
Here's my findings re TM's financial "health:"
- The official recall of 4 models will not heavily impact TM's earnings. There will be a massive amount of lawsuits to come, but not enough to cause major concern for the car company provided it works on regaining customer loyalty/trust immediately.
- TM has a small debt load and lots of cash, which is pretty darn helpful in this environment.
- 3rd quarter results showed 10% increase in revenues as well as some reduction in costs, another positive in my book.
- Fiscal year 2010 won't be as pretty as years past, but that is not unusual in this economy
- Expansion into emerging markets like Brazil and Russia should help ease the pain of a harsh decline in demand in the US
From a quick and dirty look at Toyota's financial status, the company sounds like it will be more than fine despite the recalls. Buying TM stock over the next few weeks is a good idea in my book. However, as an investor I would proceed with caution and try to wait and see if I could purchase Toyota around the mid $60s or low $70s range.
I am a big fan of Limit orders and would certainly put one on for TM at several price levels. By some conservative estimates, the 12 month stock price estimate is low $80s. Others have pointed out that it can reach its old $90s handle prior to the recall woes and even top out around the $110s. I now have TM on my own watchlist and hope to buy the stock on a down day(s).
Think long and hard whether you are willing to hold TM stock for the short or long term. Always do more research to help you make informed decisions since knowledge is power (so cliche, I know, but I couldn't help that one).
So, will you be watching TM more closely now?
Disclaimer: Please remember to speak to your own licensed financial advisor. I am just a person willing to share my thoughts about investing with internet strangers. Do your research, and then turn around and do some more. This blog is purely for discussion purposes :-)
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Dow closes above 10,000 (again)
The Dow closed above 10,000 today due to the news that Germany is considering loan guarantees for Greece's debt. It's not surprising that someone stepped up to the plate to save the euro zone from experiencing a default, but it is surprising that investors seem so confident it will happen.
I am having flashbacks of when people were so confident when Lehman would be saved from the brink of bankruptcy. Oh no, a 150+ year old firm could never go down in flames. JPM and BAC and Uncle Sam will be around to save them. Sound familiar? Perhaps I am being too bearish after all this time sticking my head in the sand. Perhaps not. If you are a day trader, the last few trading days should have been a dream come true for you.
Last Thursday and Friday, I decided to place some Limit Buy orders on a few securities. One was for the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) and the other was for Pfizer (NYSE: PFE). Even though a handful of researchers are calling for the end of Gold Rush III to be over soon (i.e. lack of inflationary pressures in the near term), I believe there is enough fear remaining in the markets that it is always good to buy some bling.
As far as my choice to purchase some Pfizer, I read a bunch of positive reviews from Money magazine, Merrill research analysts, as well as S&P analysts regarding PFE's prospects. Bruce Berkowitz picked PFE in Money Magazine (Jan/Feb double issue due to its 8.4x PE and believes that the stock will see some good movement this year. Diane Jaffee picked PFE in the same issue, highlighting the company's recent acquisition of Wyeth as an opportunity for the drug giant to cut costs and generate cash. Hopefully, Jaffee is right and the dividend will go back up this year. Either way, no matter what happens to the healthcare reform on Capitol Hill, boomers will continue to flood the big pharma market with more customers. I think PFE is a pretty safe bet, short and long term.
So, what stocks/ETFs have you purchased recently?
Note: A Limit order is a an order to buy or sell a set number of shares at a specified price or better. This gives me more control regarding what price I pay for a stock vs a market order, where it can be $1.00 more or less, depending on when my order was placed online.
I am having flashbacks of when people were so confident when Lehman would be saved from the brink of bankruptcy. Oh no, a 150+ year old firm could never go down in flames. JPM and BAC and Uncle Sam will be around to save them. Sound familiar? Perhaps I am being too bearish after all this time sticking my head in the sand. Perhaps not. If you are a day trader, the last few trading days should have been a dream come true for you.
Last Thursday and Friday, I decided to place some Limit Buy orders on a few securities. One was for the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) and the other was for Pfizer (NYSE: PFE). Even though a handful of researchers are calling for the end of Gold Rush III to be over soon (i.e. lack of inflationary pressures in the near term), I believe there is enough fear remaining in the markets that it is always good to buy some bling.
As far as my choice to purchase some Pfizer, I read a bunch of positive reviews from Money magazine, Merrill research analysts, as well as S&P analysts regarding PFE's prospects. Bruce Berkowitz picked PFE in Money Magazine (Jan/Feb double issue due to its 8.4x PE and believes that the stock will see some good movement this year. Diane Jaffee picked PFE in the same issue, highlighting the company's recent acquisition of Wyeth as an opportunity for the drug giant to cut costs and generate cash. Hopefully, Jaffee is right and the dividend will go back up this year. Either way, no matter what happens to the healthcare reform on Capitol Hill, boomers will continue to flood the big pharma market with more customers. I think PFE is a pretty safe bet, short and long term.
So, what stocks/ETFs have you purchased recently?
Note: A Limit order is a an order to buy or sell a set number of shares at a specified price or better. This gives me more control regarding what price I pay for a stock vs a market order, where it can be $1.00 more or less, depending on when my order was placed online.
Happy New Year!
So, it's been a while once again. The markets reached new highs only to see the Dow fall slightly below 10,000 the other day. Now seems to be a great time to take advantage of the rips and dips of the markets and I hope readers are partaking in some discount shopping opportunities.
Since I am out of topics to write about, please feel free to respond to this post or email me at:
streetchicstreetsmart@gmail.com. Please send me any questions you have!
Since I am out of topics to write about, please feel free to respond to this post or email me at:
streetchicstreetsmart@gmail.com. Please send me any questions you have!
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