Stock pick challenge

I needed lots of motivation to continue with this blog, so I suggested a stock pick challenge with some friends. There is no obligation besides tracking the closing price of the stock pick at today's close as well as on 12/31/09. Whoever picks the stock with the highest percent gain between today and year end wins bragging rights. If you want to participate, post a comment here and I will add you to my tracker spreadsheet :-)

Here are the parameters:
- Check tonight's closing price for your stock. This will be the starting price when you calculate your returns at the end of the year.

- List reasons why you think the stock is great. You can also discuss other people's choices and whether you agree/disagree (link to research, news articles, etc extremely helpful).

- You can pick more than one stock or ETF.

- You can't change your mind after midnight tonight.

- Check the closing price of your stock on 12/31/09 and see if you won.

My 1st pick: Apple (ticker AAPL)

My reasons:

- China and S. Korea will finally have the iPhone available at a much more affordable price, which is HUGE for the company considering these are two previously untapped and unofficial markets. There was a story on WSJ.com that discussed these markets opening for Apple. I can't post the link since you need to be a subscriber in order to read the story. So, if you want to read the articles just do a search for Apple.

- There are some accounting rule changes on when Apple can actually book revenues on the iPhone. Since the product's release, Apple had to spread out the revenue from the sale of each iPhone over the life of the AT&T contract (2 years). Now, Apple can report the total amount immediately at sale. That will mean profits will jump over the next two quarters as the company plays catch up with the phones they already sold. I heard about this accounting rule stuff on Jim Cramer's Mad Money show. Normally, I loathe any recs that this man makes but I did some digging and other analysts also point to this new account change. The biggest caveat on the accounting rule, though, is whether Apple will adopt it. I am sure there are some other issues involved with the new rule, but we shall see. I am optimistic Apple will adopt the new rule and that it will be very helpful to the revenue line.

- IMO, Apple will eventually make the iPhone available to other wireless carriers. The moment that happens, there will be another big jump in profits. There are rumors as to which carrier will be next to offer the iPhone. Bets were initially on Verizon, but the recent commercials showing a new phone destroying the iPhone probably means that VZ will not offer it any time soon. That, however, is only in the US. The global market is much bigger and I am sure some carrier overseas will get an iPhone contract similar to AT&T soon enough.

Closing price for 10/19/09: $189.86

Edited to add closing price.